Pastor Lively doesn’t have a prayer

Now that the general election has passed, it’s no surprise candidates are making noises about running in the next general election in 2014. That year all the Massachusetts constitutional and legislative offices will be up for grabs, with the governor’s seat and a U.S. Senate seat the top prizes.

Already, State Treasurer Steven Grossman, Lt. Gov. Timothy Murray and even Cape and Islands state Sen. Daniel Wolf have said or implied they’re considering seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. 

On the Republican side, outgoing Sen. Scott Brown, 2010 gubernatorial candidate Charles Baker, former Gov. William Weld and former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey are considered possible candidates, although none has said yet they are pondering a run.

One other possible candidate for governor emerged last week, however – Pastor Scott Lively of Springfield.  He’s the controversial Christian evangelist and founder of Abiding Faith Ministries, and he told The Republican he’s “90 percent sure” he’ll make the run, although he hasn’t decided if he would run as an independent candidate, Republican or Democrat.

He acknowledged to the Springfield area newspaper, however, “The third option is probably the least likely.”

Lively is best known as being virulently anti-gay and has been sued in the Springfield U.S. District Court by a Ugandan gay rights advocacy group for alleged crimes against humanity in that African country. The group said he conspired with Ugandan religious and political leaders to incite anti-gay hysteria, warning homosexuals would sodomize African children and corrupt their culture.

An associate of the pastor has twice filed a bill to make homosexual behavior a capital offense in Uganda, although international pressure did result in that provision being dropped from the measure, along with another provision requiring citizens to report known gay activity to police within 24 hours.

Lively has said that he has never advocated violence against homosexuals and advised the Ugandans against the death penalty.

Lively’s chances

Does this guy have a chance in a race for governor? No.

First of all, regardless of any other Democrats who may run, the odds of Lively getting the Democratic nomination are nil. Democrats and Republicans both have provisions in their rules requiring a statewide candidate to get at least 15 percent of the delegates at the respective party’s nominating convention if his/her name is to appear on the September primary ballot.

The Democratic convention is usually dominated by delegates who range from center left to far left, with large numbers of union activists and public employees, especially teachers.

On his website, Lively blasts “the abortion industry, the homosexual movement, the public education system, corrupt elements in state government and a broken welfare system that breeds dependency instead of rebuilding lives.”

Considering the large number of pro-choice and pro-gay rights lefties, teachers and other public employees active in the Democratic Party, he would be well served to go with his first instinct and avoid the Democratic primary. 

Lively may find a Republican primary a little more welcoming than running with the Democrats, but only, say, in Mississippi or Louisiana, certainly not in Massachusetts.

The Massachusetts GOP consists of mainstream conservatives and a few farther right-leaning folks, but certainly no large number of extreme conservatives like Lively. The party norm is very much in line with the crop of moderate Republican candidates mentioned above.

That leaves Lively with a possible run as an independent or un-enrolled candidate, but his chances there are no better. The last time an independent candidate ran for governor was in 2010, when former Democrat and state Treasurer Tim Cahill ran a poor third with about eight percent of the vote to Gov. Deval Patrick’s 48 percent and Republican Baker’s 42 percent.

Cahill was a mainstream politician who dropped his party affiliation because he knew he couldn’t beat Patrick in a primary. The Springfield pastor is far from mainstream and running as an independent he would come in third behind the two major parties and fourth if the Green-Rainbow Party nominates a candidate. 

Surely Lively can read these election results as well as anyone, so he’s likely just using a possible gubernatorial run to further his strident religious beliefs.

A couple of years ago Lively purchased a 16-acre vacant parcel on Watson Road in the Town of Washington. News spread quickly among some of the more liberal folks in the hilltowns, with the most common assumption he bought the parcel to build a vacation home or religious retreat.

Since Lively doesn’t have a prayer to be Massachusetts governor, he might as well start planning that vacation home right now.

Posted by Bruce Garlow on November 20, 2012. Filed under Berkshire Beacon Hill Spotlight,Columns,Opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry