Senate special primary is next week
Politics ground to a halt last week as the state concentrated on the horrific Boston Marathon bombings and massive manhunt for the perpetrators.
But things are picking up again, as this is the last full week of campaigning before next Tuesday’s special primaries for U.S. Senate.
There are three Republicans and two Democrats running, and the top vote-getter from each party will face each other on June 25 to see who succeeds Secretary of State John F. Kerry as the state’s junior senator.
Even before the voluntary halt to active campaigning because of the bombings, the campaign had been a pretty sleepy affair.
The Republicans – State Rep. Daniel B. Winslow, former U.S. Attorney Michael J. Sullivan and businessman Gabriel E. Gomez – have been trying to get the voters’ attention and would probably be happy if the average Republican primary voter could just remember their names when they enter the voting booth.
The two Democrats – Cong. Edward J. Markey and Cong. Stephen F. Lynch – are better known than their GOP counterparts, but are not that familiar to voters outside of the greater Boston area, and that race hasn’t generated much excitement either.
Among the five candidates, Sullivan is the most conservative. He was the only candidate who said he would not support the bi-partisan bill on gun buyer background checks that failed to pass the Senate last week and is farther right on most social issues like abortion and same sex marriage.
A poll released this week by the Western New England University Polling Institute gives the moderate Gomez a slight edge in the Republican primary, but Sullivan’s conservative credentials may make him the frontrunner.
Conservatives are generally better at getting out their voters, and the more moderate GOP voters are going to be splitting their support between Winslow and Gomez.
The right-left split is also apparent on the Democratic side. Markey, who has served in Congress much longer than Lynch, has been consistently to the left of his colleague on many issues and has gotten the endorsement of important constituent groups in the Democratic Party such as Planned Parenthood, the Mass Teachers Association and the League of Conservation Voters.
In spite of Lynch’s strength with many of the state’s unions, Markey is leading by 10 points and will probably win his primary.
Many undecided
But even at this late date, the poll also shows that over a third of likely Democratic voters are undecided, and on the Republican side, nearly 60 percent could still change their mind.
A principal reason for the large undecided sample is because this special election hasn’t gotten much attention, certainly not like the 2010 special election to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy.
Republican Scott P. Brown easily defeated a weak GOP primary opponent and charged into the general election claiming he was a moderate.
He campaigned in an old barn coat and pickup truck and garnered enough Independents and moderate Democrats to beat Attorney General Martha M. Coakley, costing the Democrats a seat they thought they would never lose.
Whoever wins the Republican primary next week, however, will not get an overwhelming vote like Brown in the 2010 primary and will be lucky to get half the votes cast among the small pool of Republicans who will participate.
The winning Democrat will likely get a solid majority of the larger pool of Democratic primary voters and all the traditional Democratic-leaning constituent groups, including most of organized labor, will get behind him.
If the Republicans nominate Sullivan, few moderates will support him, as they did with Brown, and he can’t win the general election with only GOP support.
The Republicans would probably do better if they nominate either Winslow or Gomez, but either way, the Democrat wins on June 25.
Posted by Bruce Garlow
on April 25, 2013. Filed under Berkshire Beacon Hill Spotlight,Columns,Opinion.
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