Democratic primary could indicate upset in November election

The results of the recent Democratic Party primary point to a tight general election contest in the 4th Berkshire Massachusetts State House District and trouble for 4th District incumbent William “Smitty” Pignatelli (D-Lenox).

The Sept. 6 primary featured two widely-publicized races in Berkshire County.

The most closely watched of the two was the three-way contest for Berkshire Middle District Register of Deeds between Assistant Register of Deeds Patsy Harris of Hinsdale, former Pittsfield City Clerk Jody Phillips of Pittsfield and small business owner Scott Pignatelli of Lenox.

The second high profile race was another three-way primary, this time for the newly-drawn 1st Congressional District, between longtime 2nd District incumbent Richard Neal (D-Springfield), Berkshire Middle District Register of Deeds Andrea F. Nuciforo Jr. of Pittsfield and writer Bill Shein of Alford.

Because the winners of both primaries would face no on the ballot opposition in November, practically guaranteeing them election, both races drew signifigant resources and functioned essentially as general election campaigns.

The results of the contests were two blowouts: One expected, the other not.

In the 1st Congressional race, Rep. Neal’s incumbency and massive fundraising advantage allowed him to easily trounce his two opponents, garnering 65 percent of the vote to Mr. Nuciforo’s 25 percent and Mr. Shein’s 10, a result that had been widely predicted. Still, while Mr. Neal dominated in the rest of the district, he performed poorly in much of central and southern Berkshire County, barely winning The Berkshires with only 40 percent of the vote.

In the register of deeds contest meanwhile, what was supposed to have been a down-to-the-wire race ended up being swept by Ms. Harris, who won with 61 percent of the vote to Ms. Phillips’ 22 percent and Mr. Pignatelli’s 17. Ms. Harris also won all 12 communities in the middle district, including the Town of Lenox.

One might be tempted view the outcome of these two primary races as having little bearing on the general election contest in the 4th Berkshire District. A closer look at them, however, shows that nothing could be father from the truth.

Both results indicate that there appears to be a strongly anti-establishment electoral climate in central and southern Berkshire County, which promises to make the race for the 4th District, which includes much of central and all of south county, very competitive.

Doing the numbers

The 4th Berkshire District is represented by Rep. Pignatelli, a five-term incumbent. In 2010, he was challenged by Lenox resident Lee “Scott” Laugenour, who ran against him as a Green-Rainbow Party candidate. Rep. Pignatelli easily defeated Mr. Laugenour, 11,279 votes to 2,483.

Mr. Laugenour is challenging Rep. Pignatelli for a second time this year, but the 2012 race promises to be far closer.

For one, Mr. Laugenour now has name recognition and a full campaign staff behind him. He’s also gathered the endorsement of the United Auto Workers Union. (Mr. Laugenour received no union endorsements in 2010.)

As in 2010, there will be no other candidates besides Rep. Pignatelli and Mr. Laugenour on the ballot. But what is perhaps most significant is the mood in the district itself, as manifested in the register of deeds and 1st District primary contests.

At first, the most worrying results for Rep. Pignatelli’s campaign would appear to be in the register of deeds race, where his brother, Scott Pignatelli, suffered a resounding defeat. Indeed, the magnitude of Mr. Pignatelli’s loss, particularly in the Pignatelli family’s hometown of Lenox, makes clear the Pignatelli name alone is no longer enough to carry a candidate to victory.

Both Mr. Pignatelli and Rep. Pignatelli are the sons of John J. Pignatelli, a former county commissioner who served for decades on the Lenox Board of Selectmen.

Still, Mr. Pignatelli’s loss could be written off to a widespread perception he wasn’t as qualified for the position as Ms. Harris, as well as a superior ground game on the part of the Harris campaign.

What is far harder to disregard are the results in the 1st District primary.

Rep. Neal, a well-funded incumbent, easily won election against his two more progressive challengers. Yet, in 11 of the 20 communities of the 4th Berkshire District, Rep. Neal finished in second place to Mr. Shein, including in the population centers of Stockbridge and Great Barrington.

Mr. Shein ran an unapologetically progressive campaign (so much so that he was mistakenly identified by some media outlets as a Green-Rainbow Party candidate) and only accepted donations of $99 or less. Yet, even though no serious political observer expected him to win, and he was also running alongside another progressive, Mr. Shein swept the southern Berkshires.

Additionally, Rep. Neal’s other challenger, Mr. Nuciforo, who nearly won the county as a whole, tied the congressman for first place in Lee and defeated him in the Town of Washington, both of which are in the 4th  Berkshire District.

While Rep. Neal and Rep. Pignatelli are certainly different candidates competing for different offices, both are long-term incumbents without a substantial history of championing progressive causes. That Rep. Neal performed so poorly in the 4th Berkshire District should worry Rep. Pignatelli substantially.

Given that so many voters in the southern Berkshires were willing to vote for a more progressive candidate in Mr. Shein, despite the fact that there was almost no chance he would win, the odds are good that a large number of those voters might vote for Mr. Laugenour.

He is running as a progressive challenger to Rep. Pignatelli and has a credible chance at victory. Another factor that might encourage this crossover is Mr. Laugenour’s endorsement of Mr. Shein.

The candidates react

“It has no bearing at all on the race that I’m running,” said Rep. Pignatelli, when asked about the primary results by The Beacon. “It has no relevance on this race for state rep. and the work that I’ve done for 10 years.”

He said he stood by his record in the state house and was willing to defend every vote he’d taken there. He also cited his accessibility to his constituents.

“This race is going to come down to experience, and I would stack mine up to my opponents any day of the week,” said Rep. Pignatelli, who added he would be running a clean campaign.

“The results of both elections…we welcome them,” said Mr. Laugenour when asked by The Beacon about the primary results. “We also see them as momentum builders for the campaign we launched earlier this year.”

He has yet to receive an endorsement from Mr. Shein.

“I would welcome an endorsement from him,” said Mr. Laugenour. “We do have people from his campaign who are working on our campaign.”

He added that with the primaries over, the stage is set for the general election.

“You have to spell specifics out to people,” said Mr. Laugenour, who added he is running a campaign based on reducing health care costs, reducing the cost of higher education, getting corporate money out of politics and championing progresssive taxation. “You can’t just say you’re a progressive.”

Given both Scott Pignatelli’s drubbing at the polls and the strong support Mr. Shein found in the 4th Berkshire District, voters should expect a competitive race between Mr. Laugenour and Rep. Pignatelli on Nov. 6 and prepare to evaluate the contenders accordingly.

Posted by Bera B. Dunau on September 20, 2012. Filed under Community News,News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry